Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

跨海大桥桥区航道智能助航系统研发

跨海大桥桥区航道是典型的船舶航行受限水域,船桥碰撞安全风险大,桥区航道智能助航技术有助于提高桥区航道安全保障水平。分析了桥区航道通航风险因素以及水文气象分布规律,按通航规则将水域划分为预警、警戒、航道等不同区块,构建了桥区航行的船舶动态领域风险辨识模型。研发了自主检测船舶动态并向其播发防撞预警信息的装置,以及自动管理和运行软硬件设施的桥区航道船舶避碰智能助航系统。该系统已应用在福建省平潭海峡大桥桥区航道,有效改善了桥区水域的航道通航安全形势。     

船用水润滑艉轴承的润滑承载特性

船用水润滑艉轴承由于其节能环保、结构简单和维护便利等优点一直作为船舶推进系统的研究热点。本文主要总结了船用水润滑艉轴承润滑承载特性方面的内容，轴承的润滑承载性能主要通过偏心率、最小水膜厚度、水膜压强和摩擦系数等参数描述。分别说明了工况参数、结构参数、材料参数对轴承承载润滑特性参数的影响，分析了上述三个方面的参数对轴承承载润滑参数的影响规律。其中，工况参数包括负载、速度、温度等，结构参数包括间隙、长径比、轴承直径、导水槽结构等方面，材料参数主要为材料的弹性模量和泊松比等。本文可以对船舶水润滑艉轴承的研究工作提供参考。     

无人救助艇的动力与控制系统选型

基于无人救助艇的性能要求,重点介绍动力与控制系统选型过程和原因。该艇选择磷酸铁锂电池为电源,并采用全电力推进、远程无线遥控控制技术。该无人救助艇的应用,增添了海洋救助方式。     

“穷举法”在油船货油舱分舱优化设计中的应用

为实现油船货油舱分舱优化,以一艘大型油船为例,根据MARPOL公约和共同结构规范(HCSR)的要求,在主尺度、船型和货油舱总舱容确定的情况下,以最小静水弯矩为优化目标,基于"穷举法"编制优化货油舱横舱壁位置的应用程序。实际应用结果表明,该程序可运用到油船的分舱优化中,能达到快速、合理地分舱,提高设计效率的目的。     

单线铁路CTCS-2级列控系统设计应用研究

CTCS-2级列控系统主要应用于双线铁路,在单线铁路中尚无工程应用先例,为解决单线铁路CTCS-2级列控系统应用存在的问题,在符合现行规范、不修改列控车载设备的前提下提出CTCS-2级列控系统总体方案。通过单线铁路与双线铁路的差异性对比分析,结合CTCS-2级列控系统功能需求,对闭塞方式、轨道电路配置、应答器设置、临时限速管理等特殊技术问题进行了研究并提出了解决方案。研究表明:CTCS-2级列控系统应用于时速200～250 km单线铁路能够实现列车高速安全运行。     

大直径公轨两用越江隧道消防设计技术创新

武汉三阳路长江隧道是世界上首座城市道路与地铁合建的盾构隧道,隧道的消防设计是保证工程运营安全的重点和难点。针对公轨两用越江隧道的工程特点,消防设计采用了消火栓系统、泡沫-水喷雾灭火系统、灭火器系统联用的方式,并配备自动灭火系统和气体灭火系统。对消防系统的设计原则、系统布置、关键技术参数、设备选型以及技术创新等进行重点阐述。     

A maritime safety on-board decision support system to enhance emergency evacuation on ferryboats

Planning emergency evacuation operations in a proactive manner in public marine transportation systems is a critical success factor for passenger and crew safety. Despite the fact that there is a growing attention on safety issues for marine transportation systems, providing a real-time decision support for evacuation planning under different emergency conditions has not yet been addressed. In this context, this paper contributes to the related literature by providing a comprehensive methodology including simulation and statistical analysis along with a three-module decision support system (DSS) for ferryboat emergency evacuation. Emergency evacuation and fire environment are simulated via Maritime EXODUS V5.1 and SMARTFIRE V4.3, respectively. The methodology is applied to a real-life Ro-Ro ferry, and the results not only revealed significant factors on emergency evacuation performance, but also demonstrated the validity of the developed decision support system.     

点汇聚系统的航空器污染物减排效应与机理

为研究点汇聚系统的环境效益及减排机理，采用考虑气象条件修正后的航空器性能、燃油 流量及污染物计算模型，设计了理想条件下非高峰时刻与实际运行的高峰时刻两种场景，对比分 析了航空器在点汇聚系统与标准进场程序中污染物(即HC、CO、NOX、SOX和PM)的排放情况，并 从飞行时间、燃油消耗与排放指数3个方面分析了点汇聚系统的减排机理、识别了减排关键因素。 研究发现：在非高峰时刻，点汇聚系统与标准进场程序的污染物排放总量分别为5.79 kg与7.17 kg， 点汇聚系统较标准进场程序共减少约19.25%污染物排放，对NOX、SOX和PM减排效果显著；在高 峰时刻，点汇聚系统与标准进场程序的污染物排放总量分别为290.01 kg与406.69 kg，点汇聚系 统较标准进场程序共减少28.69%污染物排放，其中NOX减排比例最高可达48.32%。结果表明： 无论是非高峰时刻还是高峰时刻，点汇聚系统都具有良好的环境效益，可有效减少污染物的排放 总量，且对NOX减排效果最佳；较短的飞行时间、较低的燃油流量是点汇聚系统体现减排优势的 关键驱动因素。     

跨座式单轨系统的道岔辅助防护系统研究

跨座式单轨作为中运量的城市轨道交通系统,它主要通过信号系统控制列车运行并同时保障列车的安全;当信号系统故障时,跨座式单轨系统的工作人员必须通过瞭望、人工准备进路组织行车,此时如果出现人员失误,会造成列车掉下轨道梁等事故,导致严重的人员伤亡。为提高跨座式单轨的安全性,根据跨座式单轨的特点设计一种道岔辅助防护系统,该系统能在信号系统故障或者失效时控制列车在安全区域停车,保证列车运行安全,从而降低人为操作失误带来的行车风险。